Market Sentiment


US dollar long bets fell to $24.95 billion from $25.44 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to January 10. The sentiment for dollar deteriorated amid mostly weak data. First, ADP report on employment change came in weaker than expected. However, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged in December at 57.2, indicating the services sector continued expanding at steady pace. Weekly claims data were positive showing initial jobless claims fell to 235000 from 263000 in the previous week though continuing claims rose to 2102 thousand from 2112 thousand.

US dollar bullish bets rose to $24.17 billion from $22.45 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 27. The economic data during the week were mixed. The US economic growth was revised upward to 3.5% from 3.3% in third quarter according to the GDP final reading. The consumer confidence jumped to 113.7 from upwardly revised 109.4 in November, hitting its highest level since 2001.

US dollar bullish bets fell to $22.45 billion from $28.0 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 20. The decline in bullish US dollar bets happened despite the Fed Decision to hike short term rates 0.25 percentage points for the second time in a decade on December 14. And while the rate hike was widely expected as most policy makers had expressed their support for the move, the indication of a faster pace of rate hikes in 2017 than previously believed was a surprise.

US dollar net long bets slipped to $28.0 billion from $28.14 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 13. Economic data during the week provided no surprises to change the expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at December 13-14 policy meeting. The University of Michigan reported the December Consumer Sentiment jumped to 98 from 93.8 in November, and Initial Jobless Claims fell to 258000 from 268000 while Continuing Jobless Claims declined to 2005 thousand from 2084 thousand.

Investors increased US dollar bullish bets to $28.14 billion from $24.82 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to December 6. Data during the week did little to change the optimistic view of investors on improving US economic growth, with comments of Federal Reserve policy makers boosting expectations Federal Reserve will hike interest rates at December meeting. The Institute for Supply Management reported the Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.29 in November from 51.9 in October, and Non-Manufacturing PMI jumped to 57.2 from 54.8 while Markit’s final Composite PMI recorded no change at 54.9. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

US dollar bullish bets rose to $24.82 billion from $22.25 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to November 29. Further positive economic reports supported expectations Federal Reserve will most likely hike interest rates at December meeting with US economy showing signs of improved growth. The GDP growth in third quarter jumped to 3.2% annual rate from 1.4% in the second quarter reviving hopes US economy will break out from subdued growth pattern at below long term growth rates that many claimed had become the new normal.

The US dollar net long position rose to $22.25 billion from $20.87 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to November 22. Positive economic reports together with expectations of strong fiscal stimulus after Donald Trump's victory supported US dollar bullish sentiment. Retail sales rose 0.8% percent in October with September's gain revised 0.4 percentage points higher to 1.0 %, showing increasing consumer spending which bodes well for fourth quarter GDP.

The bullish US dollar bets rose to $20.77 billion from $18.8 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to November 1. The strong third quarter US GDP report and mostly positive economic data were in line with expectations of improving economic growth, supporting the US dollar recent strength. Third quarter GDP rose more than expected, at a 2.9% annual rate.

The net long US dollar position rose to $18.8 billion from $18.4 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to October 25. US dollar has been advancing the previous couple of weeks in anticipation of a Fed rate hike soon. Mostly positive economic reports in the previous week indicated US economic recovery continues with expanding manufacturing activity in October.

Investors increased US dollar long bets to $18.4 billion from $14.72 billion against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to October 18.

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